Rental Home Security Deposit Dispute

It is very difficult to say how the case would ultimately turn out, but I can give you an idea of generally how the small claims court works here in Hillsborough County.  If you don't agree on the deposit beforehand, you'll be sent to mediation.  If the case doesn't settle, you'll go to trial.  Now, as you've said, you provided notice during the proper timeframe, and, presumably, they disputed in the proper timeframe.  So, the issue comes down to (1) whether they caused the damage and (2) whether the amount you are withholding is the actual damage.  Sounds like you have strong evidence they did it so do you have evidence (i.e. invoices paid, etc.) of the repair amounts paid?  That is the issue (at least in my experience) where landlords get into trouble in small claims court.  If you have an invoice, it will need to be verified to get into evidence (assuming they move to exclude it, etc..  Long short, sounds like you have a potentially strong case, BUT, as you've mentioned there are numerous outside costs that may give incentive to settle prior to suit.  Now, since you're out of town, you may find your resources are well put into hiring an attorney to send correspondence and, perhaps, file the lawsuit first, attend mediation on your behalf, and, ultimately try the case.  Many attorneys will at least offer a free consultation that may give you a much better idea of your position once all of the details are on the table.